Russian diesel exports face severe constraints after Ukrainian strikes curtailed refinery output. Following a phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, Moscow pledged to release 500,000 tons of diesel for export, amounting to less than 180,000 barrels per day—far below the 800,000-900,000 barrels per day exported prior to the intensified Ukrainian campaign targeting oil assets. Energy Aspects and Rystad Energy assess Russian oil-processing at 3.5-4 million barrels daily, roughly 30% below seasonal norms.
Several major diesel-producing plants remain halted or operating at reduced rates. While Trump hopes an energy ceasefire will restore supply, the Kremlin has continued strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says monthly exports of 3 million tons—near pre-war levels—will only be possible after December, potentially frustrating Trump's midterm election timeline.
Traders also bet on bearish US natural gas as El Niño brings mild temperatures, though sudden Arctic cold snaps remain possible. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia faces deadly strikes, Indian power stations suffer blackouts from low coal stockpiles, and AI data center construction costs soar. Big Oil eyes Iraq amid regional turmoil.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing