Russia reaffirmed its commitment to the OPEC+ alliance after the United Arab Emirates’ shock departure, signaling no immediate plans to exit despite growing concerns about the bloc’s cohesion. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Russia hopes the UAE’s exit—which took effect May 1—won’t destabilize the group’s efforts to stabilize volatile energy markets. The UAE, a founding member for 60 years, left due to longstanding tensions with Saudi Arabia over production policies and regional influence.

Russia, a de facto OPEC+ co-leader with Saudi Arabia, faces its own challenges: Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure have limited its ability to ramp up output, with March crude production 407,000 barrels a day below OPEC+ quotas. Kazakhstan also dismissed speculation about altering its participation format, while other members expressed confidence that the UAE’s exit wouldn’t trigger a mass exodus. Analysts note the UAE’s departure weakens OPEC+’s grip on supply adjustments, particularly as the Iran-Iraq conflict disrupts Hormuz Strait shipping.

The bloc’s ability to manage oil prices hinges on maintaining unity amid geopolitical fractures and operational disruptions.