Finance Minister Nicola Willis told reporters that New Zealand’s fledgling rebound has been knocked off course by the Iran war, but she expects the economy to regain momentum before the year ends. Exporters and tourism operators, still wrestling with supply-chain disruptions, will watch closely for any shift in consumer confidence.

The minister’s assessment follows a series of quarterly reports that showed modest GDP growth, then a dip after oil prices spiked amid Middle‑East tensions. Investors have priced in a short‑term slowdown, prompting a slight pullback in the NZX‑50, especially in energy‑linked stocks. Analysts say the market will remain volatile until geopolitical risk eases.

Business leaders cite the Iranian conflict as a catalyst for higher freight costs and delayed shipments, pressures that feed into inflation calculations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to keep its policy stance unchanged for now, avoiding premature rate cuts that could destabilise the recovery trajectory.

Consumers and investors alike will gauge whether the brief setback translates into a longer‑term slowdown. With export demand holding steady and domestic spending resilient, the outlook hinges on the cessation of hostilities. Willis reiterated that the recovery should be back on track later this year, confirming the government's growth forecast.