Middle Eastern oil production is expected to plummet by 9.1 million barrels per day in April as the war in Iran disrupts global energy markets. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain collectively reduced 7.5 million barrels daily in March, with US Energy Information Administration projecting further cuts amid severe curtailments through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict represents one of history's worst energy disruptions, with President Trump setting an 8 pm ET deadline Tuesday for Iran to reopen the strategic waterway. Global buyers have increasingly turned to the US to fill supply gaps, with American crude exports poised to surge to record highs as drillers respond to Trump's call for increased production amid multi-year price spikes.

US crude production is expected to climb to nearly 14 million barrels per day in 2027, up 120,000 barrels from previous estimates. The EIA projects production would return near pre-conflict levels by late 2026, assuming the conflict concludes by April. The dramatic supply shift is reshaping global oil markets as the US emerges as a critical supplier to offset Middle Eastern production losses.