India’s monsoon began 40% below projected rainfall, a drop that signals a tough season ahead for farmers and manufacturers.

The shortfall stems from a strengthening El Niño pattern that has altered regional weather flows. With less water reaching the plains, crop yields risk falling and factories tied to agricultural inputs may slow output.

Business leaders in the agribusiness sector now face higher costs and supply‑chain stress. Farmers will need to adjust planting schedules, while exporters of staple foods might see price volatility.

Financial markets have already priced in a potential rise in commodity prices and a dip in growth forecasts for the agricultural sector. Investors should monitor weather‑linked indices and consider hedging against rainfall variability.