Hungary's central bank will keep its key interest rate at 6.25% on Tuesday, according to all 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, despite global market turmoil stemming from the Iran conflict. The decision comes just weeks before a pivotal April 12 election where Prime Minister Viktor Orban faces a challenge, and as traders price in potential future tightening due to the war's impact on global energy supplies and Hungary's landlocked position. The forint has weakened over 3% against the euro among major currencies, though comments from President Trump about a potential Iran resolution briefly bolstered the currency. The NBH will publish inflation projections that may signal the war's lasting effect on price growth. Policy makers delivered a rate cut last month after holding steady for 18 months, but the current instability makes further cuts unlikely.

Analysts caution that a hike would only be considered if extreme market tensions threatened financial stability. The central bank has also offered to use reserves to secure energy imports, signaling a cautious monetary approach to protect the forint. Traders expect the NBH to send a hawkish message and possibly intervene verbally to defend the currency if its depreciation becomes excessive.