Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have escalated, shunting hopes for a swift end to the Middle East conflict. Iran vowed retaliation after the U.S. seized a cargo ship, leaving the vital waterway largely shut. Global oil markets reacted sharply, with Brent climbing to $95 a barrel, while U.S. equity futures slipped as uncertainty mounts for investors worldwide in the again.

U.S.‑Iran talks hit a snag as President Trump announced a team would travel to Pakistan, yet an Iranian official denied any negotiations. The Strait remains monitoring‑closed, and the cease‑fire agreement set to expire this week. Brent’s surge has pushed the benchmark to $95 a barrel, while the S&P 500 futures retreat after a record close and the Nasdaq’s 13‑session streak teeters.

The price spike feeds into wider economic fallout: the UAE seeks a Washington‑backed currency swap line, while luxury brands relocate inventory from the Gulf. Meanwhile, the Treasury‑issued $166 billion tariff refunds loom, offering relief to importers but also exposing a potential new wave of levies under Section 301. Investors will weigh these developments against the backdrop of a volatile, yet resilient, earnings season.