Global food prices rose in August to the highest since the end of 2022, as escalating geopolitical tensions and extreme weather deepen concerns over supplies from key producing regions. The United Nations’ index of food-commodity prices climbed 1.9% from July, led by grains, sugar and dairy, according to a report from the Food and Agriculture Organization on Friday. Global food markets are focused on supply and weather challenges, adding to the strain on farmers already battered by higher input costs.

Hostilities in the Black Sea breadbasket have escalated since mid-July, with farmers in Ukraine struggling to export grain, while hopes are also dimming for a peace deal between the US and Iran. Poor harvests in Europe, following a succession of heat waves, could leave the continent more reliant on imports, potentially intensifying competition for supplies. The threat of an unusually powerful El Niño means weather risks are unlikely to fade anytime soon, keeping global food markets vulnerable to another inflationary shock.

The FAO index tracks internationally traded food commodities, meaning it can take time for price changes to reach supermarket shelves. All the staples tracked in the index rose in August, led by an 11.9% jump in sugar and a 2.6% gain in wheat, which stands 15% above its year-earlier level. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 major products, rose more than 13% in August, its steepest gain since July 2012.

Wheat and corn futures have climbed to multi-year highs. Other warning signs are also emerging. The FAO scaled back its 2026 global grain production estimate to 2.98 billion tons, marking the largest year-on-year decline since 2018.

The agency cut its forecast for corn and rice, though the projection for the total harvest would still be the second largest on record.