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Fed Rate Cut Expectations for 2026

Bloomberg Markets •
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Traders see no further Federal Reserve rate cuts until June 2026, according to futures pricing. BNP Paribas's Guneet Dhingra and JPMorgan's Priya Misra discussed this outlook on Bloomberg Real Yield. The Fed's December projections align with this view, pointing to just one quarter-point cut next year.

This expectation marks a shift from earlier, more aggressive easing forecasts. The Fed's cautious stance reflects persistent inflation concerns and a resilient labor market. Investors are adjusting portfolios for a prolonged period of higher rates, which impacts everything from corporate borrowing to consumer loans.

What happens next hinges on upcoming economic data. Key reports on inflation and employment will determine if the Fed's timeline holds. Bond market vigilance remains high as traders parse every central bank comment for policy shifts.