The dollar rose on Election Day in the US, buoyed by climbing Treasury yields and solid economic data, while traders monitored developments in the Middle East for a sense of the greenback's direction. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.2% on Tuesday as Americans voted in the midterm election.
The gauge is hovering close to its high for this year, reached last month as hot inflation data fueled bets on additional Federal Reserve policy tightening. However, this week's trading has shown how oil, and speculation around efforts to resolve the standoff between the US and Iran, may dominate the greenback in the coming days. The currency fell along with oil Monday, and intraday Tuesday, on signs of movement on both sides and reports President Donald Trump wanted to let talks with Iran play out.
"For the US dollar, oil remains the most important near-term driver to watch and any outsized move there will more than likely supersede any midterm impact," Sarah Ying, head of foreign-exchange strategy at CIBC, said in a note. "We like positioning for USD downside, given that the US administration has taken a more conciliatory tone on Iran in recent days (though this could change after the election)."
In the options market, the bullish stance on the dollar was fading heading into the election, as the premium traders were paying for call contracts waned to the slimmest since September, judging by one-week risk reversals on the Bloomberg dollar index. By CIBC's analysis, volatility measures in currencies are giving the midterms about the same risk weighting as a typical US report on consumer prices. "What would be more important to watch is what happens with Trump's post-midterm agenda, particularly with Iran and with trade negotiations," Ying wrote.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing