Corn futures surged to a two‑week peak on Monday, climbing as much as 1.1% after President Donald Trump warned of military action if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The chokepoint handles a large share of global fertilizer shipments, and its shutdown has sparked fears that U.S. corn yields could be squeezed for the upcoming harvest in the Midwest.

Analysts at Cornucopia Agri Analytics say the supply pinch will bite hardest for crops planted in April or May, when U.S. farmers sow their summer corn. They expect the May contract discount to widen versus the December benchmark, a signal that traders are loading up on new‑crop corn ahead of potential lower harvests as planting windows narrow.

Because the United States accounts for roughly one‑third of global corn output, any yield shortfall could lift prices across commodity markets. Meanwhile, fertilizer exporters from the Middle East have already posted higher rates, tightening input costs for growers worldwide. The current rally reflects both immediate supply anxiety and the broader risk of a prolonged regional conflict and could pressure food inflation.