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Citi forecasts up to $80B foreign inflow to India after RBI reforms

Bloomberg Markets •
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Citi’s India chief executive K Balasubramanian told Bloomberg TV that the Reserve Bank of India’s new capital‑market reforms could pull $80 billion of foreign inflows before year‑end, with estimates ranging $60 billion to $80 billion. The flow would rank among the biggest yearly foreign inflows for an emerging market, prompting investors to redeploy cash that has lingered in safe‑haven assets.

Earlier this month the RBI unveiled measures to widen the eligible investor base, simplify overseas citizens’ access to rupee accounts, and relax portfolio‑investment scheme limits. Those steps address a shortage of foreign capital that has kept Indian equity premiums high versus peers, potentially narrowing spreads, boosting market depth, and improving liquidity for domestic issuers. The reforms also aim to align India with global best‑practice standards.

With the RBI’s reforms in place, fund managers are shifting allocations from cash‑rich markets to India’s technology and consumer sectors. The inflow pipeline could lift the Nifty index by a few percentage points, tightening valuation gaps with the US. Citi projects a material rebalancing of global portfolios toward India this year, boosting reserves and supporting the rupee amid global rate volatility.