Chile’s state copper commission Cochilco cut its 2024 output forecast to 5.3 million metric tons, a 2% dip from earlier estimates. The downgrade reflects lower ore grades, scheduled maintenance and operational constraints at mines. With Chile supplying roughly a quarter of global copper, the revision tightens the supply balance that has already lifted prices toward record levels as investors track inventories globally.

Cochilco also lifted its average copper price outlook to $5.55 per pound for 2024, up from a prior $4.95 estimate, while spot prices already trade above $6 in New York. The higher forecast reinforces bullish sentiment amid supply disruptions at major mines and accelerating demand from data‑center construction and the energy transition. Economy and Mining Minister Daniel Mas warned the market remains volatile.

Refined copper demand is projected to grow 1.5% this year, reaching 28.2 million tons, and 2.3% by 2027, driven chiefly by China despite its property slump. Cochilco expects a modest 12,000‑ton surplus in 2026, a sharp contrast to last year’s 124,000‑ton deficit. The tight market outlook supports continued price resilience for manufacturers and renewable projects today.