President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro remain locked in a tight race as Brazil prepares to vote in Sunday’s election, according to three new polls. Lula would receive 47% to Bolsonaro’s 44% of valid votes in a first round scenario, an Atlas Intel survey for Bloomberg News found. The leftist president would take 45% to Bolsonaro’s 42% in a Datafolha survey, while a Quaest poll showed Lula at 46% to Bolsonaro’s 45%.
If no candidate receives a majority, the top two will advance to a runoff on Oct. 25. In runoff scenarios, Lula leads narrowly: 47.6% to 47.4% in Atlas Intel, 47% to 46% in Datafolha, while Quaest showed Bolsonaro ahead 44% to 42%. Polls indicate a dead heat, with margins within error ranges.
The race will determine if Brazil joins a regional rightward shift seen in Chile, Colombia, and Peru. Markets are watching first-round margins for momentum clues. The contest has been affected by a bank fraud case involving Banco Master SA’s Daniel Vorcaro, with police probing Flávio Bolsonaro’s dealings.
Lula faces scrutiny over Supreme Court ties to the scandal. In final weeks, Lula boosted social program benefits and banned online gambling to address debt concerns. Atlas Intel surveyed 4,945 voters (Sept. 27–Oct. 2, ±1 pt, BR-00999/2026); Datafolha surveyed 4,006 (Oct. 2–3, ±2 pts, BR-01708/2026); Quaest surveyed 3,702 (Oct. 2–3, ±2 pts, BR-02197/2026).
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing