About a quarter of the workers typically stationed at BP Plc’s Whiting refinery in Indiana are preparing for a strike or lockout, a move that could halt production and ripple through the Midwest fuel market. The potential stoppage threatens to tighten supply chains and lift gasoline prices.

BP’s Whiting refinery processes roughly 200,000 barrels per day, supplying a significant share of the Midwest’s gasoline and diesel. Labor disputes at major refineries have historically triggered regional shortages, prompting regulators to monitor the situation closely and prompting investors to reassess exposure to refining margins.

If the strike proceeds, BP may seek temporary shutdowns or alternative sourcing, while the National Petroleum Council could issue emergency guidance. Market watchers will track BP’s negotiations and any federal intervention that could mitigate supply shocks and protect regional fuel prices.

Industry analysts warn that a prolonged stoppage could push refining margins down by 10-15 cents per barrel, while competitors might absorb displaced output. Investors should monitor BP’s labor negotiations and potential regulatory actions that could reshape the Midwest refining landscape.