Record diesel prices and uneven agriculture exports are heaping more uncertainty onto crop traders and farmer machinery makers that are pining for a long-awaited recovery to take hold. Crop trader Bunge Global SA and tractor maker AGCO Corp. both spoke of a challenging global landscape Thursday after reporting third-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations, as wars, trade tensions and higher input costs strain farmers around the world. “We’re entering into next year with about as complicated an environment as we’ve seen in a long time,” Bunge’s Chief Financial Officer John Neppl told investors on Thursday’s earnings call. “The environment remains highly dynamic with elevated uncertainty.” Conflicts in the Middle East and Black Sea regions continue disrupting the flow of agricultural commodities, from key crops like wheat to critical farming inputs such as fuel and fertilizer. Companies such as Bunge and AGCO have a window into those impacts as they ripple across the supply chain, affecting farmers to consumers and ultimately prices at the grocery store.
While Bunge maintained its full-year earnings guidance, AGCO cut its annual sales outlook as higher diesel and fertilizer costs, rising interest rates and continued pressure on crop prices weigh on farmer sentiment and soften industry demand for equipment. “Global demand is now at its weakest level in more than a decade,” Chief Executive Officer Eric Hansotia said on the company’s earnings call. “We continue to believe the industry is at the trough of this cycle, with some recovery coming in 2027.” Bunge shares fell as much as 3.6% in New York, with analysts viewing the firm’s unchanged guidance as implying softer fourth-quarter earnings. Shares of AGCO rose as much as 8.3%. Both companies highlighted the influence of geopolitics and trade policies on agriculture during their calls. “Geopolitical tensions, evolving government policies and global weather patterns continue to change agricultural flows,” Bunge’s CEO Greg Heckman said, touting Bunge’s ability to pivot. “We can redirect crop flows, work around physical constraints and keep supply connected to demand across regions.” The St. Louis-based said it expects slightly lower results in its soybean processing business on shrinking margins in the US, Brazil and Europe.
It anticipates higher results in grain merchandising and milling on expectations of good grain harvests in Australia and Canada, even as supplies out of the Black Sea remain constrained. Soybean and corn futures each hit multi-month lows before paring losses as the buildup in supplies amid the autumn harvest was outpacing demand for the crops. Wheat futures jumped after Bloomberg reported China was making its first inquiry about US wheat shipments following a presidential summit in September.
Bunge said it’s watching to see how China’s commitment to purchase 25 million tons of US soybeans annually through 2028 plays out. China’s pledge to the US drives the Asian nation to also secure soybeans grown by American farmers. “Brazil has become an important supplier to China and when the economics work, that’s where it will go,” Heckman said.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing