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Aluminum exports surge as Middle East war tightens supply

Bloomberg Markets •
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China's aluminum exporters ramped shipments in May, sending 630,000 tons abroad – a 16% year‑over‑year rise that eases the gap left by disrupted output in the Middle East. Smelters in the world’s largest producer maximized capacity to capture higher prices as war‑hit regions curtailed supplies. The extra volume buoyed export revenues, reinforcing the sector’s trade‑surplus contribution for global.

Meanwhile, China’s crude oil imports plunged 29% to 33.1 million tons, the lowest level since February 2018, reflecting reduced demand as refiners cut fuel output. Gas purchases held steady as coal imports fell, keeping domestic energy consumption modest. Lower import bills have cushioned the price impact of the aluminum rally for Chinese manufacturers and stabilizing regional supply chains.

Overall, the aluminum export surge offsets weaker commodity imports and shows China can pivot production to meet external demand despite geopolitical strain. Tighter export controls on fertilizers and steel, plus lingering domestic consumption weakness, temper the upside for related sectors. Investors should watch whether sustained export growth can outpace the slowdown in domestic consumption and reinforce China’s export‑driven growth model.