Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 18, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Global Macro & Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve officials held interest rates steady following their meeting, though Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the central bank faces a difficult path forward as persistent inflation pressures mount. This decision comes as market expectations for rate cuts dimmed considerably, a factor that contributed to a broad decline in U.S. stocks throughout the session. Despite the hawkish stance, JPMorgan Investment Management’s Bob Michele suggested the Fed sent a market signal of "don’t worry about it" regarding surging oil prices and geopolitical risk, a message that may be tested by accelerating commodity inflation as warned by allies.
Energy Markets & Geopolitics
Global energy markets recoiled violently following reported strikes on energy facilities in both Iran and Qatar, pushing benchmark oil prices above $110 a barrel, which contrasts sharply with lagging increases in U.S. crude inventories that rose by 6.2 million barrels last week against analyst forecasts for a slight decline. This geopolitical volatility has sparked a global scramble, prompting Sweden’s Maha Capital AB to exercise its rights to a Venezuelan stake following U.S. sanctions relief, while Venezuela’s state oil group PDVSA gained licenses to sell directly to American refiners. Further compounding global supply concerns, Russia is reportedly considering deploying armed naval patrols to safeguard its "shadow fleet" from further Ukrainian attacks.
Corporate Finance & M&A Activity
Despite the turbulence caused by high energy costs and regional conflict, Wall Street dealmakers are being advised by Goldman Sachs not to wait for market perfection before pursuing strategic mergers and acquisitions, though Lazard’s M&A chief noted the Iran war may slow deal timelines. In the retail sector, value chain player Five Below Inc. shares jumped 7% in after-hours trading after issuing a fiscal 2026 outlook that surpassed expectations, fueled by predictions of sales growth stemming from new store openings, supplementing its reported fourth-quarter profit of $238.2 million. Meanwhile, consumer goods giants like Unilever and Kraft Heinz held talks regarding a potential multi-billion dollar merger, reflecting a shared corporate struggle against subdued consumer demand.
Private Credit & Market Stress
The stress within the private credit segment is spreading, with S&P Global Ratings cutting the outlook on Cliffwater LLC’s flagship private credit fund to negative from stable due to elevated redemption requests threatening liquidity. This investor exodus is now affecting consumer loans, with a fund holding debt from firms like Affirm and Block coming under pressure, yet Bank of America analysts maintain that the current selloff in private credit-tied firms is not a repeat of the 2008 Financial Crisis. Pacific Investment Management Co. is actively steering clear of discounted loans being sold in the market, deeming them "pretty bad," while Bof A is advising clients to consider shorting European equities that are heavily exposed to the private credit sector, citing a 30% downside risk.
Technology & Litigation
Legal data firm Relativity, backed by Silver Lake, has reportedly engaged banks to arrange an initial public offering, signaling continued appetite for high-profile tech listings even as broader market uncertainty persists. In the regulatory sphere, FCC Chief Brendan Carr is reportedly targeting smaller networks in his scrutiny of TikTok, while former President Trump has reportedly given the Chinese-owned platform a reprieve. Separately, French music streaming service Deezer is battling a wave of AI fraud where bad actors are repeatedly playing AI-generated tracks to illegally extract royalties from the platform.
Domestic & Political Developments
Shares of government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell sharply, hitting more than a year-long low amid investor uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s plans for their potential sale. On the shipping front, President Trump suspended the Jones Act to alleviate pressures on gas prices by allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move cargo between U.S. ports, a move that would allow vital fuels to flow more easily. In other political news, the controversy surrounding the late labor icon Cesar Chavez intensified, with Hispanic groups canceling events following NYT reporting detailing allegations of sexual assault against women and girls during the 1960s and '70s.