The 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Final heads to Game 5 with the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights deadlocked at 2-2. Carolina captured Game 4 by a 5-3 margin, forcing a best-of-three scenario as the series shifts back to Raleigh. Each franchise chases its second championship, with the Hurricanes listed as -153 favorites for Thursday's 8 p.m. ET face-off at Lenovo Center.

SportsLine's Projection Model, which has generated a +568 return on top-rated money-line NHL picks, simulated this matchup 10,000 times. The model sides with the Over (6 goals) after every game in this series has exceeded the total. Carolina and Vegas have combined for an average of 8.3 goals per game, with the Over hitting in five straight meetings dating back to the regular season.

The statistical trend heavily favors high-scoring action. When the total reaches at least 6, the Over has connected 67% of the time for the Hurricanes this season. Vegas goaltender Carter Hart has seen the Over go 21-13-4 (61%) in his starts. With both teams projected to score over 3.0 goals on average, the model gives the Over a 56% probability of cashing. Visit SportsLine for the complete betting breakdown.