Shein has cut the valuation it hopes to fetch in a Hong Kong listing to between $30bn and $40bn, a fraction of the near-$100bn it commanded in the private market. Analysts view it as a maturing e-commerce and logistics business whose price must reflect a more modest outlook due to fierce competition and strain on its supply chain model.

Morgan Stanley, a sponsor alongside Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, put fair value at $39bn to $52bn in a report to potential investors. This valuation is based on 18 to 24 times projected 2027 earnings, benchmarking against listed peers such as Inditex and H&M. While revenue rose 41.1% in 2023, research firm Coresight expects expansion of only around 2% this year.

Regulatory changes, including the US decision to scrap duty-free treatment for low-value packages, are stripping away the cost advantage of Shein’s direct-shipping model. Furthermore, while active shoppers climbed to 273 million in 2025, order frequency held flat, suggesting the company is winning new users without deepening engagement.