Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Last updated: March 23, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Geopolitical Shockwaves and Energy Markets
Global markets experienced significant volatility as President Trump backed off his threat bloomberg.com to strike Iranian energy infrastructure, causing an immediate and sharp reversal in commodity prices. Following the message posted on Truth Social at 7:05 a.m., oil prices plunged over 13% bloomberg.com, while Treasury yields tumbled, illustrating the market’s immediate sensitivity to de-escalation signals regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This swift reversal followed intense positioning, where traders had placed nearly $580 million in oil bets ft.com in the fifteen minutes leading up to the President’s statement, reflecting the high tension surrounding potential supply disruptions. Even with the immediate threat removed, the conflict continues to impact energy flows, as evidenced by global LNG exports falling to a six-month low bloomberg.com, erasing recent supply gains despite US efforts.
The fallout from the Middle East conflict is pushing markets into a new phase, with Citadel Securities observing a shift toward ‘demand destruction’ bloomberg.com as investors begin focusing on the drag on global economic growth rather than just the initial inflation shock. This sentiment is echoed by US Energy Secretary Wright, who noted that while prices had risen over 30% in some areas since the war began, they have not yet reached levels to trigger "meaningful demand destruction" according to the administration bloomberg.com. However, the effects are already materializing for some firms; Applied Nutrition Plc. saw its shares slump the most since its 2024 IPO bloomberg.com after specifically citing disruption from the Iran War as a growth risk.
Fixed Income and Safe Havens
The sudden shift in geopolitical risk appetite triggered massive swings across fixed income, with the value of global bonds wiping out more than $2.5 trillion bloomberg.com in March due to stagflation fears stemming from the Iran war, marking the largest monthly loss in over three years. In the UK, gilts are facing their worst month since the historic rout following the ouster of former Prime Minister Liz Truss, as higher energy costs and rising yields jolt the market bloomberg.com. Meanwhile, investors are seeking stability in specific havens; Singapore’s bonds have outperformed all developed-market peers this year bloomberg.com, bolstered by haven demand despite the broader oil surge, while the US investment-grade bond market began tentatively reopening after a three-session pause as Iran concerns eased bloomberg.com.
Gold, which had previously rallied on inflation fears, saw its gains erased as the geopolitical situation stabilized. Gold wiped out all of this year’s gains wsj.com as the Middle East conflict stoked inflation worries, subsequently diminishing the appeal of the non-yielding asset. In contrast, the US administration is actively trying to secure supply chains independent of volatile regions, announcing plans to commit $250 million toward an investment consortium bloomberg.com aimed at financing critical minerals and energy projects globally.
Corporate Activity and Regulatory Shifts
Corporate dealmaking showed signs of life, particularly in the beauty and energy sectors, despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Estée Lauder is nearing a deal ft.com to combine with Spain’s Puig, which holds brands like Carolina Herrera, to forge a potential $40 billion beauty giant, while Puig itself carries an approximate market value of $10 billion according to initial reports bloomberg.com. In the energy transition space, French firm TotalEnergies is walking away from US offshore wind projects wsj.com, opting instead to redirect funds following the Trump administration’s decision to release them from $1 billion in lease obligations bloomberg.com in exchange for reinvestment into US oil and gas development. Furthermore, Canadian renewable energy firm Boralex Inc. is exploring options to go private bloomberg.com, signaling potential consolidation in the sector.
Private capital is rapidly reorienting its focus away from software and toward hard assets, driven by the AI boom’s immense power demands. Private equity firms are swapping software systems for hard hats bloomberg.com, seeking investments in areas like infrastructure, while simultaneously, volatility is hitting the private credit sector. Cliffwater’s Stephen and Blake Nesbitt are facing scrutiny bloomberg.com as investors rush for the exits amid industry turmoil, a situation mirrored by Apollo capping investor withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund ft.com amid broader uncertainty, including emerging AI impacts on enterprise software.
Tech, Media, and Regulatory Environment
The regulatory environment remains contentious, particularly concerning emerging technologies. In Europe, critics argue that overregulation threatens the Continent’s economic and security prospects wsj.com against rivals like China, especially in the Artificial Intelligence race. Meanwhile, in the US, the judiciary appears to be stepping up its enforcement role following the Musk verdict, which suggests the system is taking on expanded securities law enforcement ft.com. Separately, the push to finance AI infrastructure is driving debt issuance, prompting JPMorgan Chase & Co. to offer clients a new hedge against the debt risk of five major hyperscalers bloomberg.com. In the advertising world, OpenAI has hired a former Meta executive wsj.com to lead its nascent advertising push, aiming to build stronger brand relationships.
Transportation and Domestic Affairs
A dramatic aviation incident at New York’s LaGuardia Airport bloomberg.com highlighted severe operational strain, where an Air Canada Express crew member miraculously survived being ejected meters away from the fuselage after the plane crashed into a fire truck, leading to ground stops and long lines as TSA checkpoints struggled with staffing nytimes.com. This incident occurred amid broader transportation issues, including New York City’s transit agency planning to approve a $1 billion excavation contract bloomberg.com for the Second Avenue subway expansion, contingent on the release of frozen federal funds. On the corporate side, Madison Air filed for a Nasdaq IPO targeting a $500 million valuation bloomberg.com, supported by strong revenue growth in private aviation charter services.