Heat pump sales in the US have doubled over 15 years, outpacing natural-gas furnaces by 32% in Q1 2026. This growth persists despite a key federal tax credit of up to $2,000 expiring at the end of 2025 under the Inflation Reduction Act.

Typically, incentive sunsets cause sales cliffs—as seen with EV credits ending September 2025. But heat pumps tell a different story. Shipments remained flat from December to January and have risen gradually since, following seasonal trends that are actually stronger in 2026, per data from the Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute.

Energy economist Lucas Davis of UC Berkeley argues the market no longer depends on tax credits. The case for heat pumps—efficiency, lower operating costs, decarbonization—appears sufficient on its own. Heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces for four consecutive years in the US, with similar momentum in China and Germany.

While adoption paths are rarely straight, the resilience of this major decarbonization tool is encouraging even as policy roadblocks appear.