A decade into the vertical software boom, founders are asking a pointed question: are we cooked? The tweet from Nic Brisbourne captures a growing unease in the SaaS ecosystem, where once-hot vertical markets have become saturated and competition fierce. What worked for early movers like Toast in restaurants or Procore in construction may not translate to today's crowded landscape.

Vertical SaaS promised a gold rush of industry-specific solutions, with investors pouring billions into niche markets. Companies that nailed workflows for specific sectors enjoyed premium valuations and sticky customer bases. But as the playbook became common knowledge, hundreds of startups flooded each vertical, driving down margins and making differentiation harder. The question now is whether the low-hanging fruit has been picked.

For founders considering vertical plays today, the math has changed. Customer acquisition costs are higher, competition is stiffer, and the path to escape velocity is longer. While vertical SaaS isn't dead, the easy wins are gone. Success now requires deeper industry expertise, superior execution, and often, a willingness to build in unsexy but profitable niches. The era of raising massive rounds on a vertical thesis alone may be over, but opportunities remain for teams that can truly understand and serve their target industries better than anyone else.