The upcoming SpaceX IPO hinges on a fully operational Starship, a reusable launch system promised to ferry heavier V3 Starlink satellites, support orbital data centers, and meet NASA’s Artemis commitments. Critics note the most recent test reached only 121 miles, far short of the 300‑mile orbit needed for current satellites, raising doubts about near‑term viability in the coming years.

Parallel to hardware worries, xAI claims 93 % of the company’s addressable market, yet its flagship Grok remains unused by internal engineers. Founder Patrick Boyle highlights a $60 billion bid for rival Cursor and a $15 billion annual contract with Anthropic that merely rents external compute. These facts suggest a widening gap between projected revenue and the $235 billion capital requirement through 2030 for the next decade.

Nasdaq, S&P 500 and FTSE Russell have altered float‑weighting rules, allowing a low‑float SpaceX share class to be treated as if 15 % of its stock were free‑float. Passive funds will be forced to buy billions of illiquid shares, creating a “garden‑hose” squeeze across global indexes. When the 180‑day lockup ends, insiders can flood the market, leaving ordinary retirement investors exposed to inflated prices.