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Revisiting Europe‑US growth gap: why productivity metrics mislead

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The author reposts a revised essay on European economic performance after demand to remove the paywall. He argues the common narrative of Europe lagging behind the United States rests on a misreading of productivity data. Conventional measures of output per hour, he says, do not capture the real story behind the Atlantic comparison.

He illustrates an “apparent paradox” using World Bank and OECD figures. When GDP per capita is indexed to constant 2021 prices, Europe’s share declines over 25 years. By contrast, PPP‑adjusted series show Europe gaining, with the euro area at 86 % of U.S. output per hour in 2000 and 87 % in 2024. The gap barely moves.

The author attributes the stability to divergent product mixes that shift price levels, a factor omitted from standard productivity calculations. He warns that policymakers who focus solely on headline growth may misjudge competitiveness. Evaluating economic health therefore requires looking at current‑price PPP values rather than static‑price productivity trends.

The discussion has drawn responses from economists like Noah Smith and Luis Garicano, indicating growing interest in the methodology. By reframing the data, the essay challenges Draghi’s warning of a competitiveness loss and suggests that Europe’s social model remains viable despite slower measured productivity growth.