The target set in 2015 by the Paris Agreement, to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100, has become unachievable within a single decade, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) states in its 2026 Emissions Gap Report.
The report, titled "The Point of Return," says the opportunity to bridge the 1.5°C emissions gap with "no or limited" overshoot has been lost. Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels is now imminent and inevitable. The urgent task is to keep global warming below 2°C, with the aim of returning to 1.5°C by the end of the century, which UNEP describes as the only option left. "Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C raises the risk of irreversible changes including in ice sheets, permafrost carbon, ocean circulation and coral systems," the report warns.
To stay on course, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 relative to 2025 levels. Current trajectories fall far short. Even if national commitments are fully implemented, emissions would drop only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035. The UN Secretary General said the recommended efforts amount to "close to 6 per cent every single year until 2035."
The report sets specific targets, including tripling renewable energy capacity by 2035 compared with 2025 levels and reducing the shares of coal, oil and gas in energy production by 55%, 15% and 5% by 2035. UNEP also estimates that 320 gigatons of CO2, eight times the emissions recorded in 2024, must be removed from the atmosphere by the end of the century, through approaches such as reforestation and carbon storage technologies.
UNEP nonetheless sees room for progress. UNEP Chief Inger Andersen noted that global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated since the Paris Agreement, with solar PV expanding seven times faster. Progress remains insufficient, however, particularly on fossil fuels and deforestation.
Source: Hacker News · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing