The U.S. Department of Education has introduced a compliance test that ties a program’s federal loan funding to the earnings of its graduates. The rule, termed "do no harm," requires undergraduate programs to lift alumni salaries above the average earnings of non‑college workers, and graduate programs to exceed the earnings of a bachelor’s holder. Failure to meet the threshold for two of three consecutive years leads to loss of federal linh.

The benchmark sits between $30,000 and $41,000 annually, a figure that many state data sets show is attainable for most majors. Yet a Department estimate indicates 800,000 students live in programs that may not meet the metric, with about 18% of certificate programs flagged for high failure risk. Programs in cosmetology, somatic body work, and certain arts disciplines such as music and theater sit at the top of the risk list, including prestigious schools like Juilliard and the New England Conservatory.

The policy does not factor in loan debt, meaning graduates with high debt but modest wages could still meet the test. The Department plans to start calculating earnings in early 2027, potentially marking low‑earning programs as ineligible for aid in 2028‑2029. Stakeholders argue the rule oversimplifies success, especially for creative arts where income streams are irregular and cultural impact is a core metric.

Analysis shows that while the rule aims to curb waste, it may unintentionally curtail disciplines that lack immediate high‑pay outcomes, reshaping the higher‑education labor market and funding landscape.