Bluesky's promise of decentralization through ATProto faces a critical challenge: despite being open source, the network is becoming increasingly centralized around Bluesky's infrastructure. The company controls the dominant Personal Data Server, Relay, AppView, and DID directory that power the entire ecosystem. While users can theoretically migrate to self-hosted alternatives, almost nobody does.

This creates a dangerous flywheel effect where each new ATProto app increases dependency on Bluesky's servers rather than distributing value across the network. Developers building on the protocol actually strengthen Bluesky's position by adding more data to its infrastructure. The situation resembles Gmail's dominance in email but may be worse since each new app adds data to the same centralized PDS rather than connecting to independent servers.

Bluesky has raised $120M at a $700M valuation, creating pressure for returns through acquisition, monetization, or going public. Any of these paths would incentivize consolidating control rather than maintaining true decentralization. The protocol's technical capabilities to leave mean little when default behaviors keep users locked in. As with every platform transition in history, almost nobody takes proactive steps to protect their data until it's too late.