Public Markets 24-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 17, 2026, 1:30 AM ET
Geopolitical Tensions & Commodity Markets
Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel for a third consecutive session, extending a streak not seen since August 2022, as investors digested ongoing supply threats stemming from the Middle East conflict. Gold edged higher on potential technical recovery after front-month futures had earlier lost 1.2% overnight, while Asian currencies mostly weakened against the dollar amid fears of a prolonged regional war. These simultaneous price movements are unusual, as Asian stocks gained on AI strength even as oil remained elevated, a divergence from recent inverse correlation since the conflict began.
The impact of energy disruption is already being felt across global supply chains: US diesel prices soared to nearly $5, threatening to increase transport and agricultural costs, and European natural gas prices are projected by HSBC to remain 40% higher through 2027 due to the Strait of Hormuz closure worries. In a paradoxical move reflecting the severity of the energy crunch, the US granted temporary exemptions from sanctions to Iranian-linked ships carrying Russian oil. Furthermore, shipping insurance costs to traverse the Strait of Hormuz have skyrocketed, though passage remains technically possible.
Central Banks and Fixed Income
Central banks across the globe, including the US Federal Reserve and the ECB, are convening this week facing renewed inflation worries that have upended markets, though the war was not initially on the agenda for the 18 institutions meeting. Morgan Stanley remains committed to its forecast for Fed rate cuts starting in June and another reduction in September, despite rising oil prices that have caused some traders to pull back expectations for easing. This divergence is reflected in bond markets, where managers are doubling down on bets that monetary policy will diverge globally, even as elevated energy prices boost the case for higher rates. In Asia, Japan’s 20-year government bond auction saw demand in line with the 12-month average, suggesting steady investor appetite despite inflation fears fuelled by rising crude.
Corporate Finance and Private Credit Turbulence
Investor anxiety is rippling through the $1.8 trillion private credit market, causing private bankers in Asia to intensify efforts to calm nerves, even as default rates in direct lending are predicted by Morgan Stanley to reach 8% due to AI disruption in the software sector. This concern over bank exposure to private credit was underscored by the public dispute between Western Alliance and Jefferies, revealing risks inherent in bank backing for these assets. Elsewhere in corporate finance, LSEG attracted solid demand for its $3 billion high-grade bond sale, while JPMorgan drew $19 billion in orders for the debt backing the leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts Inc. Meanwhile, Canadian billionaire Stephen Smith reached an agreement to acquire a minority stake in The Economist magazine.
US Political Ripples and Regulatory Shifts
The evolving political and legal landscape is creating volatility across sectors. In the regulatory sphere, the abrupt resignation of the SEC’s Enforcement Chief, Margaret A. Ryan, just six months into the role has surprised market observers, coming as President Trump signals a desire to eliminate quarterly reporting in favor of semi-annual releases as proposed by the SEC. Simultaneously, the administration’s handling of foreign policy is intersecting with energy markets: President Trump has been inconsistent on Iran, while simultaneously pushing for US energy exports, noting that Asian nations should be ‘thanking’ the US for strikes as stated by the President. In California, Sable Offshore resumed oil transport under an emergency directive, restarting a pipeline shut down since a 2015 rupture, setting up a renewed conflict with state officials over drilling.
Asia-Pacific Focus
Global investors are increasingly turning toward Malaysia as a preferred destination, with the nation already standing out as an emerging favorite even before the Iran war spiked energy prices. This preference is evident as the Malaysian e-commerce platform Borong topped the latest FT-Statista ranking for high-growth Asia-Pacific companies. In India, the country’s third-largest pension fund, UTI, is pivoting back to bonds following a period of heavy equity purchases, a move that might offer support to the nation’s struggling debt market. Indian lenders are simultaneously battling a slump in deposits, prompting a veteran banker to suggest new tools are needed to attract savings away from equity investments.