Public Markets 24-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 17, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Geopolitical Tensions & Energy Markets
Global markets navigated persistent turbulence stemming from the Middle East conflict, which simultaneously pushed up crude prices while fueling broader equity rallies across Asia. Oil prices rebounded after an initial 5% drop, as investors weighed supply threats in the Strait of Hormuz against reports that more crude might become accessible. The war’s impact on refined products is expected to be more severe than on crude benchmarks, with Goldman Sachs warning that diesel and jet fuel will sustain the largest shock. In Europe, the fallout is projected to keep natural gas prices a whopping 40% higher through 2027 compared to prior estimates, driven by sustained supply concerns. Against this backdrop, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed it has additional emergency oil reserves ready for release if necessary, while the Philippines Congress authorized the president to suspend petroleum excise taxes during emergencies.
Central Banks & Macroeconomic Headwinds
Central bankers worldwide convened facing inflation worries acutely exacerbated by energy price surges, with the Federal Reserve widely expected to hold rates steady this week while assessing the fallout. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its call for June and September Fed rate cuts despite oil volatility, though the Bank for International Settlements cautioned that a prolonged conflict could trigger a market slump and a surge in government borrowing costs. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate hike was perceived as dovish, causing the Australian dollar to swing sharply against the USD, contrasting with Indonesia where the central bank is expected to keep its key rate unchanged to defend the rupiah against war-related fiscal pressures. Meanwhile, Indian lenders are struggling as deposits fizzle, leading a veteran banker to suggest banks need more options to raise funds, even as the nation’s third-largest pension fund pivots back to bonds after a year of heavy equity buying.
Finance & Regulatory Shifts
The private credit sector is showing deeper distress than many on Wall Street acknowledge, with Morgan Stanley forecasting default rates climbing to 8% in direct lending, partly due to AI disruption in the software industry. In response to growing systemic concerns, Goldman Sachs Asset Management is targeting $13 billion for a new mezzanine debt fund designed to capitalize on credit market dislocations. Regulatory scrutiny remains high, as the SEC’s Enforcement Chief abruptly resigned after only six months, prompting speculation about who might replace her. Furthermore, the US Treasury is attempting to reassure sovereign wealth funds after foreign investors warned they might cut US exposure over proposed tax changes. In the UK, short-seller claims sent Close Brothers shares plunging 14% amid allegations the lender understated car finance risks, potentially requiring provisions up to £1.23 billion.
Corporate Dealmaking & IPO Activity
Asia’s initial public offering pipeline is facing regulatory headwinds, as Beijing reportedly restricts overseas-incorporated firms from listing in Hong Kong, potentially disrupting a long-standing financial maneuver. In contrast, the Philippines market anticipates a bumper fundraising year driven by several “mega” IPOs, according to the Stock Exchange CEO. Elsewhere, German fintech Upvest secured $125 million in new funding, achieving a €640 million valuation for its brokerage technology platform used by neobanks like Revolut. In M&A, Amplifon agreed to acquire GN Store’s hearing aid unit for $2.6 billion, a price that caused the seller’s shares to surge by a record amount. On the real estate front, Public Storage confirmed a $5.63 billion all-stock deal to acquire National Storage Affiliates, creating a combined storage giant valued at $57 billion.
Technology, Infrastructure, and Defense
The global demand for data center capacity is straining energy supplies and insurance markets, with reports indicating a lack of sufficient cover is causing some investors to walk away from large deals, mirroring issues Ireland is grappling with. To alleviate this strain, CoreWeave and BCE are backing a major data center development in Saskatchewan, Canada. In the defense sector, the escalating conflict has caused upheaval in niche metals markets, with tungsten and germanium prices jumping due to shortage fears. Furthermore, a UK drone interceptor start-up focused on developing cheaper air defence systems is reportedly in funding talks at a valuation exceeding $1 billion. Separately, Nvidia debuted a new AI product at its annual conference, leveraging recent deal technology to showcase evolving artificial intelligence capabilities.
Political & Sovereign Developments
Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Iran war continues to cast doubt over high-level diplomatic engagements, with the Xi-Trump summit now delayed as tensions rise. President Trump has expressed disappointment that allies like China, Japan, and Korea did not offer assistance to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In the Caribbean, Cuba is simultaneously suffering a total nationwide blackout due to a de facto US oil blockade, even as a top official stated the country is ready to accept outside foreign investment. Meanwhile, in the US, the Kennedy Center board voted to close for a two-year renovation project shortly after President Trump had criticized its financial management. In other news, billionaire Stephen Smith and his family have agreed to acquire a minority stake in The Economist magazine.